Growth plan for Simply Earth, 7 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
Simply Earth has 5,492 reviews and a $39.99 first box. The plan turns that proof into a steady flow of new ads, holding target CAC at $7.20 while spend climbs toward the $100,000 budget I propose.
- Target CAC
- $7.20
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- $24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
One number to protect: a $7.20 CAC on the $39.99 first box
The one number I protect is a target CAC of $7.20. It sits at 0.6 of a $12.00 ceiling, so a bad week does not break payback on Simply Earth. My KPI: scale ad spend, hold target CAC. Everything else follows from that.
Protect
Target CAC: $7.20 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $15 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $12.00. Guard line = 0.6 × $12.00 = $7.20. Across the ranges: $2.63 to $328.04.
Three moves
- Kill losing ads early, one variable per test, so spend only follows ads that land under $7.20.
- Put the 5,492 reviews and the $39.99 first box into every landing page ahead of the shop grid.
- Report daily CAC so a drift above $7.20 is caught the same day, not at month end.
- reviews shown on the page
- 5,492
- Published
- first box price, down from $49.99, with free shipping
- $39.99
- Published
- people who have opened a box, in the brand's own words
- 100,000+
- Published
02 Variety
Ads built on 5,492 reviews, not generic oil talk
Each ad concept has to carry one thing only Simply Earth has: the $39.99 first box with free shipping, the Recipe Box reviews, a single oil like Clean & Fresh at $13.99, or the 13% of profits against human trafficking. One reason per concept, one variable per test.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| DIY made simple | We deliver simple recipes, pure ingredients, and step-by-step guidance | 6 |
| 5,492 reviews | ★★★★★ 5,492 reviews | 3 |
| Certified pure | Certified 100% Pure | 3 |
| Four oils, six recipes | Get 4 oils + 6 recipes + supplies delivered to your door | 2 |
| Free gift with first box | Free Felt Pumpkin Diffuser with Your First Box | 2 |
| Every order gives back | 13% of profits from your purchase go to help end human trafficking | 1 |
| 20% off plus free shipping | Start Your DIY Journey – 20% Off + FREE Shipping | 1 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 18 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
The Recipe Box pause question is a real risk
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recipe Box buyers pause or cancel after the $39.99 first month, so repeat orders fall short | Med | High | Your team | Repeat-order rate reported by day 30; hold spend growth if it can't support the $12.00 ceiling |
| Free shipping over $29 and the first-box offer overlap and attract discount-only buyers | Med | Med | Both | CAC by offer compared in week two; drop the offer whose CAC sits above $7.20 |
| Event tracking misses subscription orders, so CAC is misread | Med | High | Your team | Purchase events match store orders before any week one spend goes live |
| Creator videos stretch oil claims beyond the brand's own wording | Med | High | Both | Every video checked against the claims sheet before it goes live |
| Hit rate is lower than my guess, so winners arrive later than the volume table says | Med | Med | Me | No ad under $7.20 CAC by day 30: cut volume and rebuild the hook library |
| The same DIY kit footage repeats across ads and fatigue lifts CAC | Med | Med | Me | Frequency and CAC reviewed weekly; refresh any ad above $7.20 for three days running |
| Seasonal blends like Pumpkin Spice and Gingerbread fall out of season mid-test | Med | Low | Your team | Stock and season status confirmed before any seasonal ad is briefed |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
The $12.00 ceiling rests on guesses week one replaces
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | $15 (range $5.00–$242.99) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | $12.00 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | $7.20 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $15 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $12.00. Guard line = 0.6 × $12.00 = $7.20. Across the ranges: $2.63 to $328.04.
Range across the assumptions: $3 to $328.
The $12.00 ceiling is $15 × 40% × (1 + 1). Order value, margin and repeat rate are my guesses, not Simply Earth data. Week one replaces them with your numbers.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
$24,000 of tests buys six weeks of answers
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 0 | $7 |
| 2 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 2 | $7 |
| 3 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $10,000 | 4 | $7 |
| 4 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $14,000 | 6 | $7 |
| 5 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $19,000 | 8 | $7 |
| 6 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $24,000 | 10 | $7 |
Six weeks of tests, all Proposed. Weeks one and two run 12 ads at $250 each, $3,000 a week. Weeks three and four run 12–20 ads, $4,000 a week. Weeks five and six run 20 ads, $5,000 a week. Total $24,000 of tests.
The math. Week 1: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 2: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 3: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 4: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 5: 20 × $250 = $5,000; Week 6: 20 × $250 = $5,000. Total $24,000 (96 ads × $250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
More concepts, more winners: from 20 to 80 concepts
More concepts means more winners, and winners are what add spend at target CAC. Hit rate and spend per winner are guesses (Assumption): 20 concepts → 2 winners → $18,000 added; 80 concepts → 8 winners → $72,000 added.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | $300 / day | $18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | $300 / day | $36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | $300 / day | $54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | $300 / day | $72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × $300 × 30 days = $18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × $300 × 30 days = $36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × $300 × 30 days = $54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × $300 × 30 days = $72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
$100,000 split across tests, winners, creators and pages
- Tests of new ads on the first box and single oils
- $45,000
- 45%
- Scaling winners that hold $7.20 CAC
- $25,000
- 25%
- Creator pay for DIY kit videos
- $20,000
- 20%
- Landing pages and tracking fixes
- $10,000
- 10%
Out of the $100,000 Proposed budget, most goes to tests and to the winners that clear $7.20; creators and landing pages get the rest.
The math. 45% × $100,000 = $45,000; 25% × $100,000 = $25,000; 20% × $100,000 = $20,000; 10% × $100,000 = $10,000. Sum 100% = $100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Meta first: a DIY box sells by being seen being made
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta | Week one, with the first 12 ads | Creator DIY videos fit feed and Reels, and the $39.99 first box needs fast tests. |
| TikTok | When creator videos show winners on Meta | Kitchen-table DIY content is native there, and creators already film in that style. |
| After landing pages are live for the kits | Recipes and DIY projects are the kind of thing people save and come back to. | |
| YouTube Shorts | When the creator roster is near full | Recipe walkthroughs reuse creator footage at close to no extra production. |
| Google search | When purchase tracking is clean | It captures people already searching for Recipe Box and essential oil blends. |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
Payback decides: a $15 CAC never pays back
Payback is the real constraint. The PLAN's rule: CAC $5 pays back on the first order with $7.00 left; CAC $10 pays back after repeat orders with $2.00 left; CAC $15 never does, −$3.00; CAC $20 never, −$8.00. Above the $12.00 ceiling I stop, however good the ad looks.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: $6.00, $12.00.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5 | $6.00 | $12.00 | $7.00 | First order |
| $10 | $6.00 | $12.00 | $2.00 | After repeat orders |
| $15 | $6.00 | $12.00 | −$3.00 | Never: stop |
| $20 | $6.00 | $12.00 | −$8.00 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC $5: $12.00 − $5 = $7.00 left; pays back: First order; CAC $10: $12.00 − $10 = $2.00 left; pays back: After repeat orders; CAC $15: $12.00 − $15 = −$3.00 left; pays back: Never: stop; CAC $20: $12.00 − $20 = −$8.00 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
Scope: ads, creators and tests, not Recipe Box operations
Covers
- Meta ad strategy, testing and daily CAC reporting
- Creator recruiting, briefs and a hook library for the DIY kits
- Landing page structure built on the reviews and the first box
- A claims sheet so videos stay inside the brand's own wording
Doesn’t
- Building event tracking: I spec it, your team implements it
- Recipe Box fulfilment, stock and customer service
- Product, pricing and the first-box offer itself
- Essential oils expertise: I have no experience in this category
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | Tests are live, tracking matches store orders and some ads are near $7.20 CAC | Tracking still doesn't match store orders |
| Day 30 | One winner under $7.20 CAC and repeat orders support the $12.00 ceiling | No ad under $12.00 CAC after $14,000 of tests |
| Day 60 | Winners scale with blended CAC at or under $7.20 and ten creators are live | Blended CAC above $12.00 for two weeks running |
| Day 90 | Spend is up, CAC is held at $7.20 and cohort payback sits inside the rule | CAC at $15 or more with no winner in the pipeline |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| claims sheet | Certified 100% Pure and 13% of profits wording on the site | One approved list of lines creators can use | 1st |
| reporting | Orders for the $39.99 first month Recipe Box | Clean purchase and subscription events | 1st |
| creative | 5,492 reviews and a $39.99 first box to build hooks from | A tested hook library and ad batches | Week 1 |
| creators | 100,000+ makers in the brand's own words | A roster of DIY creators and briefs | 2nd |
| landing pages | Recipe Box offer: $39.99 first box, free shipping | One page per ad concept | 2nd |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 5,492 reviews shown on the page | https://simplyearth.com/ | Fact |
| $39.99 first box price, down from $49.99, with free shipping | https://simplyearth.com/pages/recipe-box | Fact |
| 100,000+ people who have opened a box, in the brand's own words | https://simplyearth.com/ | Fact |
| Product prices $5.00–$242.99 | product prices in the site product data (66 products), read 2026-10-06 | Fact |
| $15 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| $7.20 target CAC | 0.6 of the $12.00 margin per customer | Calculated |
| $12.00 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| $24,000 of tests (96 ads × $250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| $100,000 first budget split 45% / 25% / 20% / 10% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · $300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| $5.74 per 1,000 views against a $1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| $1,000 base pay · $50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands $300–$600, $500–$1,000, $800–$1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
Week one: I read the Recipe Box reviews, write the claims sheet, build the first hook library and brief the first two creators. We spec the purchase events with your team, then launch the first 12 ads at $250 each.
